The Big Short by Michael Lewis

I just finished reading The Big Short, Inside the
Doomsday Machine, by Michael Lewis. It's an
intriguing story about how the whole subprime
mortgage crisis developed, and who some of the
players were who actually could see ahead to
the ugly crash.

Michael Lewis is also the author of The Blind Side,
on which the movie that earned Sandra Bullock
an Academy Award is based. He does a great job
of involving you with the major players and telling
the story through them.

The Big Short refers to a position in the stock
market where investors bet against the success
of a company, or a segment of the market and
in this case the investors bet against the success
of subprime mortgage bonds.

While the mortgage industry was behaving as
if property values would always go up, and that
borrowers could always refinance their loans
when they became intolerable, Lewis shows us
some of the people who were on the other side
of that bet.

Lewis is able to take some technical and arcane
information and explain it in terms that anyone
with an interest can decipher.

He takes the reader through some of the basics
of the subprime lending world, where loan orig-
inators marketed the loans to the consumers.
These loans in turn were taken by the lender
and put into subprime mortgage bonds and sold
to investors through Wall Street.

The bond traders on Wall Street then "sliced and
diced" these mortgage bonds into layers called
tranches, and rating agencies like Moody's and
Standard and Poors were supposed to use their
analytical prowess to properly assess the risk and
grade them accordingly.

The Wall Street firms then created new investment
instruments called Collateralized Debt Obligations
(CDO's), which gave them further opportunities to
sell positions in the same underlying bonds and
actual mortages. Some of these Wall Street firms
included Lehman Bros., Bear Stearns, Merrill
Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and
Morgan Stanley.

The investors who were betting against the success
of the subprime bonds, who wanted to be short in
the market, needed a way to make this work. They
needed a way to insure their position and were able
to buy Credit Default Swaps (CDS's) to do so. AIG
was the major player who provided this insurance.

I'm sure that I do not have a comprehensive under-
standing of how all of these pieces fit together. But
it finally became clear to me how it all started to
unfold.

The Greenspan era with the Federal Reserve was
notorious for providing a lot of liquidity at very
attractive terms. It provided the fuel and the
insatiable appetite for the subprime binge.

This incredible supply of liquidity meant that the
Wall Street firms needed to find a market that
could put that money to work. Mortgage-backed
securities (MBS's) traditionally filled some of that
market, because they were usually filled by first
trust deeds that conformed to well-understood
and conservative underwriting standards.

But these types of loans could not longer satisfy
the investment beast. It wanted to be fed, and
instead of holding firm to MBS product that
were filled with conservative first trust deeds,
it was willing to accept, at first, wilder versions
of first trust deeds. These became known in
the market as Alt-A loans, and they usually
commanded a slightly higher rate to compensate
for the risk.

Once the standards started slipping, it wasn't
incredibly long before investors were willing
to accept MBS product that were filled with
interest-only first loans, or stated-income and
no-doc loans, or negative amortization loans,
or stated-income and no-doc negative amort-
ization loans. Investors also rationalized that
the loans with teaser rates for the first two
years and then adjust to a higher rate would
be a good thing too.

And since these still didn't satisfy the demand,
investors were willing to buy MBS product
that included second loans. These second loans
could be fixed-rate or HELOCs (home equity
line of credit loans). A prudent investor may
want to limit their exposure to 80% of value,
but since property values were always going to
go up (right?), they thought: let's create second
loans that go all the way to 100% of the value,
let's do them on a no-doc basis, and to make
things easier, let the interest accumulate on
these without requiring payments.

The rating agencies did not do a good job at all
of assessing the risk in these MBS pools. Investors
were duped into thinking that they were buying
AAA rated bonds when in fact they were buying
into something of substantially higher risk of BBB
quality.

Inside the Wall Street firms, there may have been
only a handful of people that truly understood
what was being created, marketed and sold. Also,
there was a very limited understanding of how
highly leveraged this business had become. There
was one trader at Morgan Stanley that had
accumulated $16 billion of subprime positions
that were poised to go to zero when the eventual
crash came. As Lewis tells it, management at
Morgan Stanley had no clue as to the financial
risk that the company was in because of this one
trader.

We all know that the crash came. And with it
came the demise of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers,
and Merrill Lynch's absorption by Bank of America.
AIG received a massive bailout from the Federal
Reserve to stay solvent. Morgan Stanley and Gold-
man Sachs were tanking also, and the government
stepped in to prevent a total collapse.

Amazingly, almost everyone who was integral in
this house of cards was paid handsomely through
the process. People were richly rewarded for doing
the wrong things. And no one really cared who
was going to end up the big loser as long as they
got their piece of the action along the way.

If you want to see the process from the inside,
and maybe answer some questions for yourself
as to how we got into this mess, I highly recommend
reading The Big Short.

The Power of the Prequal

You've found a house that you want to buy.

You've checked other homes, you are confident
in the purchase price.

You are ready to write the offer with your real
estate agent.

The last time you needed a home loan, you
had little difficulty getting qualified and things
went smoothly.

All systems GO!

Hit the brakes, turbo! Things have changed
and the financing may not be as easy as it was
the last time.

All professional real estate agents want you
to go through the process of applying for a loan
and getting prequalified for the likely financing
you will need.

It makes every part of the process smoother.

You have an excellent idea of the proper price
range to be looking.

You have an idea of any obstacles that you may
be facing in this new lending environment.

The agent doesn't waste time and resources
showing you properties that are out of your
price range.

You don't fall in love with a home that you can't
afford.

The escrow period is significantly shortened if
we work together to get your paperwork in
order as you are looking at homes, rather than
starting from scratch from day one of the
escrow period.

When your offer is presented, it is strengthened
by an accompany letter from a reputable lending
source (me!) that you have done your homework and
that you are prequalified for the financing.

Admittedly, there are many borrowers who find
out that they are not quite prepared to buy at
the time they want.

But finding that out before they spend hours
looking at homes and getting emotionally attached
is a good thing.

Sure, it can be disappointing. But if you are
committed to buying at a future point, you can
develop a game plan to solidify your career, boost
your earnings, clean up some credit flaws, save
more money, etc.

So if you want to put yourself in the best possible
position in your next home purchase, it would be
wise to follow these steps:

1. Contact your preferred lender (me!) to get
your paperwork started. This will include a
written loan application, supporting paperwork
to verify income, assets, employment, debts.
It will also allow me to run your credit report
to make sure that all is well, or to see if we have
a project on our hands.

2. Narrow your choices for the type of financing
vehicle you prefer. In today's world, the choices
have been simplified. Low-doc, no-doc, interest-
only, exotic adjustable rate loans, and deferred-
interest loans have essentially disappeared.
The dominant choices are conventional fixed-
rate, FHA, VA, and some milder forms of adjust-
able rate loans.

3. In addition to me using my 33 years of exper-
ience to ascertain your qualifications, we can
also obtain a decision from an automated under-
writing system (AUS) that conforms to FNMA,
FHLMC, FHA and VA guidelines. This system
is based on data input, so the key is to know
what we can verify so that we get a decision that
is supportable.

4. At this point we can issue a letter that makes
note that we have received and reviewed your
loan application, we have run your credit report
and found it acceptable, and that we have verified
your income, assets and debts. We can also
indicate that we have a written loan approval
from the AUS that supports a specific sales price
and loan amount.

5. As you find the home that fits within the
qualifying criteria, we just need to make sure that
the property will also be acceptable. Special care
should be taken if you are looking at condominiums,
or if you are looking at home that may require
some repair or remedy of deferred maintenance.

The agent representing the property and the agent
representing you as a buyer will be pleased that
one of the major hurdles - obtaining the financing
to purchase the home - has been diligently assessed
and that the surprises can be kept to a minimum.

Some borrowers dread the process of the loan
application, but the reality is that it most probably
will need to be done sooner or later. 'Sooner' makes
the most sense to minimize transactional trauma,
while 'later' backloads all the pressure when emotions
are running high and deadlines are looming.

Let's work together, plan ahead and make the process
as smooth as possible.